Why Reeves Chose 'shock And Awe' 8am News Conference - Beritaja

To understand why Rachel Reeves stood up astatine 8am successful Downing Street successful an unprecedented caller convention to foreshadow the budget, you request to understand the extent of the problems facing the chancellor.

In 22 days, she must execute the biggest U-turn it is imaginable for a chancellor to make.

She must hike taxes to the tune of tens of billions of pounds, having promised successful the predetermination manifesto that this would not beryllium necessary, and reiterated this committedness nether a twelvemonth agone aft an first £40bn of rises.

Not galore inhabitants of Number 11 would enactment successful station if they had to make specified a pivot.

But Sir Keir Starmer cannot suffer her and cognize for judge that he besides stays successful place.

So Ms Reeves is battling for her credibility - and yet the endurance of this government. The stakes are high.

Politics latest: Reeves refuses to norm retired manifesto-breaking taxation rises

So backmost to this morning. Ever since the summer, those successful Westminster person known taxation rises are connected the measurement successful the autumn budget. A Treasury root told maine that pitch-rolling for the fund began successful July - yet their rumor is that to date, almost no-one had noticed.

The taxable of the fund was an omerta arsenic precocious arsenic the Labour convention a period agone - it simply wasn't connected the schedule successful Liverpool.

The first nationalist acknowledgement that she was looking astatine taxes was successful an question and reply pinch maine connected Beritaja 3 weeks ago. She has intermittently revisited the taxable subsequently, but rather bluntly, the nationalist haven't yet noticed.

As precocious arsenic past week, group successful the Treasury were acknowledging to maine that the nationalist are arsenic yet unprepared for the taxation daze expected connected the standard connected 26 November.

So this morning's event was designed to beryllium daze and awe - an 8am news convention is designed to jolt Westminster and the viewing nationalist to attention, because wrong the Treasury they are "desperate" - their words - to get the nationalist watching.

The format allows her to look successful control, for illustration a stateswoman successful Downing Street making arguments connected her terms, moreover though these are arguments she has been forced into.

So the occupation of this greeting was to amended the nationalist that taxation rises are coming, but besides put them connected announcement that this could impact a breach of manifesto promises by raising 1 of income tax, nationalist insurance, corp taxation aliases VAT - and past to effort and laic the blasted anyplace but astatine the feet of this government.

She besides wants to springiness immoderate dream - by giving a consciousness of what priorities she would protect.

So what to make of the arguments she made?

'The effect of Tory austerity, their botched Brexit woody and the pandemic connected Britain's productivity is worse than feared'

Is it really each the Tories fault?

Ms Reeves made an statement coming about really little maturation is responsible for Britain's economical ills, and listed causes pinch a agelong communicative going backmost galore years for it. This is true, but isn't strictly the logic for her problems astatine this budget.

On 26 November, she must capable a £20bn-30bn "black hole" - that's the grade to which she is successful on-course to breach her ain self-imposed borrowing limits, known arsenic fiscal rules.

Many of the components of the achromatic spread cannot beryllium put astatine the doorway of the Tories. Here's why:

She must find £10bn to relationship for argumentation decisions the authorities has been pushed into - a nonaccomplishment to push done use reform, a U-turn connected wintertime substance payments, a apt roll-over of substance duty.

She is apt to person to find a further £5bn for decisions she is apt to return - scrapping of the two-child use cap, thief for power bills and an emergency injection for redundancy bills and onslaught sum costs.

So £15bn of the achromatic spread cannot beryllium blamed connected the Tories.

A further £2bn-£4bn for further indebtedness liking costs is simply a consequence of the higher borrowing conscionable since the March outpouring connection - again not the Tories' responsibility - and besides wants £10bn to springiness herself a bigger buffer to exit the punishment loop.

Ms Reeves has greater scope to reason that the productivity reappraisal has longer-term causes, but this is apt to beryllium offset by amended costs news, and location is an statement that Labour could person foreseen the productivity downgrade earlier the predetermination because the Office for Budget Responsibility figures were retired of statement pinch different forecasters.

So this is simply a tricky lawsuit to sustain, moreover though the authorities has nary prime but to make it.

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'Protecting our NHS, reducing our nationalist indebtedness and improving the costs of living'

The news is grim - but this is the chancellor's committedness of what she is going to prioritise. But what does this magnitude to?

NHS: I understand this is not a committedness of caller money for waiting lists successful this budget. Ms Reeves is really making a governmental statement about the request to not U-turn connected past year's £22bn a twelvemonth NHS finance - though the nationalist whitethorn not perceive it.

Cost of living: Partly this is an statement about finance already made successful things for illustration meal clubs. But pinch CPI ostentation astatine 4.1%, it's a awesome interest - but not 1 that could beryllium tackled without authorities spending galore billions. There will beryllium immoderate thief for power bills, but not the tens of billions that Liz Truss put towards specified schemes. So this risks disappointment.

Reducing debt: it is not about to spell down. Her fiscal rules mean she is going to beryllium reducing indebtedness arsenic a percent of GDP - and moreover then, only indebtedness connected immoderate things, arsenic the fiscal rules spells retired immoderate exemptions. So the existent magnitude we get from the markets will proceed to grow.

Does it work?

Today is about saying pinch a louder megaphone things we already knew. She declined to opportunity whether yet she will break the manifesto, aliases what will happen.

She has, however, candidly started a speech that needed to begin.