Gavin Newsom's Gamble On Prop. 50 May Be His Most Calculated Yet - Beritaja

SACRAMENTO — Gov. Gavin Newsom stepped to the microphone astatine the authorities Democratic office successful mid-August pinch the condemnation of a man definite he was connected the correct broadside of history, bluntly saying California has a civilized responsibility to thwart President Trump’s effort to tilt the equilibrium of Congress.

Over the adjacent 2½ months, Newsom became the nationalist look of Proposition 50, a measurement designed to thief Democrats triumph power of the U.S. House of Representatives by temporarily redrawing California’s legislature districts.

Newsom took that leap contempt tepid support for a gerrymandering measurement successful early polls.

With Tuesday’s election, the destiny of Proposition 50 arrives astatine a pivotal infinitesimal for Newsom, who past week acknowledged publically that he’s weighing a 2028 statesmanlike run. The result will trial not only his governmental instincts but besides his expertise to present connected a measurement that has nationalist attraction fixed squarely connected him.

From the outset, Newsom paired his condemnation pinch caution.

“I’m mindful of the difficult activity ahead,” Newsom said successful August, soon aft lawmakers placed Proposition 50 connected the ballot.

It was acquainted territory for a politician who has built a profession connected high-stakes governmental bets. As San Francisco mayor, his determination to rumor same-sex matrimony licenses successful 2004 made him a progressive icon. It besides drew accusations he’d energized blimpish turnout that twelvemonth successful the statesmanlike predetermination that ended pinch George W. Bush winning a 2nd term.

As the state’s recently elected governor, he suspended the decease punishment successful 2019 contempt voters having doubly rejected measures to do so, calling it a costly and biased strategy that “fails to present justice” — a move that drew fury from rule enforcement groups and victims’ families. His determination to return connected Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis successful a 2023 prime-time statement hosted by Sean Hannity connected Fox News was intended to showcase his bid of argumentation and governmental agility, but alternatively fell level amid an onslaught of insults.

With Proposition 50, Newsom placed himself astatine the halfway of different perchance career-defining bet earlier knowing really it would land. Ahead of Tuesday’s typical election, polling suggests he whitethorn person played his cards right. Six retired of 10 apt voters support Proposition 50, according to a study by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies that was co-sponsored by The Times.

“You know, not everybody would person done it,” seasoned Democratic strategist Gale Kaufman said. “He saw the consequence and he took it.”

If approved by voters, the ballot measurement would redraw California’s legislature maps to favour Democrats opening pinch the 2026 midterm elections successful hopes of discounting Republican efforts to gerrymander much seats for themselves. California introduced the measurement successful consequence to Trump and his governmental squad leaning connected Republican-led states to redraw their territory lines to thief Republicans clasp power of the House.

The equilibrium of powerfulness successful the intimately divided House will find whether Trump could beforehand his schedule during his last 2 years successful agency — aliases look an emboldened Democratic mostly that could move to challenge, aliases moreover investigate, his administration.

And while critics of the politician spot a power-craving leader chasing headlines and influence, supporters opportunity this is classical Newsom: confident, risk-tolerant and consenting to guidelines unsocial erstwhile he believes he’s right. He faced aggravated backlash from his governmental friends erstwhile he had blimpish characteristic Charlie Kirk arsenic his inaugural impermanent connected his podcast this year, connected which Newsom said he believed it was “deeply unfair” for transgender athletes to compete successful women’s sports. After Kirk was killed, Newsom regularly brought up that question and reply arsenic a constituent of pride, noting the backlash he received from his ain statement complete hosting a Trump ally.

In caller months Newsom struck a woody to stabilize struggling lipid refineries, pushed cities to ban bum encampments and projected stepping backmost healthcare sum for undocumented immigrants — a bid of moves that person tested his opinionated pinch progressives. Supporters opportunity the moves show his pragmatic streak, while critics reason they bespeak a displacement to the halfway up of a imaginable statesmanlike run.

“In truthful galore ways, he is not a cautious politician,” said Jessica Levinson, a rule professor astatine Loyola Law School. “His marque is big, bold decisions.”

With Proposition 50, Newsom has formed the redistricting counterpunch arsenic a civilized imperative, arguing that Democrat-led states must “fight occurrence pinch fire,” moreover if it intends pausing a authorities independent redistricting process mostly considered the golden standard. The measurement upends a strategy Californians overwhelmingly endorsed to support authorities retired of the map-drawing process.

Levinson said Newsom’s floor plan has been rising on pinch the polling numbers for Proposition 50 arsenic he has booked nationalist tv shows for illustration ‘The Late Show pinch Stephen Colbert” and appeared successful an successful favour of the ballot measurement pinch erstwhile President Obama, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and different salient Democrats that ran during the World Series.

“We are talking about Proposition 50 connected a nationwide scale,” Levinson said. “And it’s really difficult to talk about Proposition 50 without saying the words ‘Gov. Newsom of California spearheading the effort to pass.’”

California Republicans person called the effort misguided, arguing that the retaliatory consequence creates a slippery slope that would erode the independent redistricting process California voters person chosen doubly astatine the ballot box.

“When you conflict occurrence pinch fire, the full world burns,” said California Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin), whose territory is among those that would beryllium overhauled nether Proposition 50. “Newsom is trying to declare that Texas did a bad gerrymandering, but what California is doing is simply a bully gerrymander because someway it’s canceling it retired … I conscionable deliberation gerrymandering is wrong. It’s incorrect successful Texas and it’s incorrect successful California.”

Kiley said Newsom ne'er has been 1 to awkward distant from nationalist attraction “and for pursing explicitly partisan goals.”

“He’s surely utilized this arsenic an opportunity to do some of those things,” Kiley said.

Out of the gate, the redistricting scheme had lackluster support. Then came the flood of ads by proponents peppered pinch talking points about Trump rigging the election.

Supporters of Proposition 50 took successful more than 4 times the magnitude that opponents raised successful caller weeks, according to run finance reports revenge pinch the authorities by the 3 main committees campaigning about the measure. Supporters of Proposition 50 raised truthful overmuch money that Newsom told them “you could extremity donating.”

Political analysts said the redistricting conflict has fixed Newsom what each eager leader craves: a narrative. It’s allowed him to formed himself arsenic a defender of populist while reenergizing donors. That connection sharpened erstwhile Trump management officials said they’d monitor polling sites in respective California counties astatine the authorities GOP’s request, prompting Newsom to impeach the Trump management of “voter intimidation.”

Republican strategist Rob Stutzman said the run gave Newsom thing he’d struggled to find: “an authentic confrontation” pinch Trump that resonates beyond California.

“And I deliberation it’s worked good for him nationally,” Stutzman said. “I deliberation it’s been awesome for him successful immoderate ways, sloppy of what happens, but if it does lose, it’ll wounded the marque that he could triumph and location will beryllium a batch of disgruntled donors.”

While Newsom has framed the measurement arsenic bully for the country, Stutzman said it’s clear that Proposition 50 has been peculiarly bully for the governor.

“He’s utilized it for his ain purposes very, very effectively,” Stutzman said. “If he becomes the [presidential] nominee, you could look backmost and opportunity this was an important portion of him getting there.”